Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will San Francisco get on July 21, 2026? Specifically, it asks about the single highest temperature reading of that day at San Francisco International Airport. The three choices are: stays at or below 81°F (a cool San Francisco summer day), reaches 82 or 83°F (a warm day), or climbs to 84 or 85°F (a notably hot day for the city). San Francisco is famous for cool, foggy summers, so even 82°F would be considered a warm day there. After July 21, 2026 ends, the market settles based on whichever temperature range contains the highest reading recorded that day at San Francisco International Airport, using data from the Weather Underground website. The temperature is rounded to a whole number in Fahrenheit, so 81.9°F would count as 81°F. The final answer is locked in once the first data point from July 22 appears, so any last-minute corrections to July 21 readings before that cutoff still count. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. The one headline listed is about Indian parliament, which has no connection to San Francisco temperatures. To follow this market, the most useful things to watch would be long-range weather forecasts for the Bay Area in mid-July 2026, and any reports of unusual heat events affecting California. San Francisco summer weather is genuinely tricky to forecast because the city sits right on the edge of a cool ocean influence. Most July days stay mild, which is why the market prices 81°F or below at 63%. But occasional heat waves push temperatures well above normal, sometimes quickly. The airport station also sits south of the city, where it can run warmer. With the date still over a year away, no forecast exists yet, so the current odds simply reflect historical patterns, not any specific upcoming weather signal.

The odds right now

• 81°F or below53%
• 82-83°F28%
• 84-85°F15%
• 86-87°F2%
• 88-89°F1%
• 92-93°F0%
• 100°F or higher0%
• 90-91°F0%
• 94-95°F0%
• 96-97°F0%
• 98-99°F0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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