Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will San Francisco get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at the airport weather station, and which two-degree range it falls into. A win for '68-69°F' means the day peaks somewhere in that band, roughly a mild summer day by most standards. '70-71°F' would be a touch warmer, and '66-67°F' a bit cooler. San Francisco summers are famously cool, so all three ranges sit well below what most cities would call hot. The market settles based on the peak temperature logged at San Francisco International Airport (station KSFO) on July 23, 2026, pulled from Weather Underground. Whichever two-degree range contains that recorded high wins. The reading is in whole degrees Fahrenheit, so there is no rounding ambiguity. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 24 appears on that source. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections made after do not. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. The headlines available are about an art exhibition at MoMA, which has no connection to San Francisco weather. To track this market, the thing worth watching closer to July 23 would be local weather forecasts for the San Francisco Bay Area, particularly any mention of marine layer patterns or inland heat events. San Francisco's summer weather is genuinely tricky to forecast, even days out. The city sits at the edge of a cool ocean, and the famous fog and marine layer can keep temperatures in the mid-60s one day and then pull back to let warmer air push in the next. The three leading ranges are all fairly close together, and a shift of just a few degrees moves the outcome from one bucket to another. Long-range forecasts for a specific date over a year away carry very high uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 68-69°F41%
• 70-71°F24%
• 66-67°F17%
• 72-73°F8%
• 64-65°F6%
• 74-75°F3%
• 62-63°F2%
• 60-61°F1%
• 76°F or higher1%
• 58-59°F0%
• 57°F or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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