Highest temperature in London on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 22, 2026, what will the hottest point of the day be in London, measured in whole degrees Celsius? Each option is a specific temperature, and whichever one matches the actual recorded high that day wins. Think of it like guessing the peak on a thermometer, where 26°C is roughly a warm summer day (about 79°F), 25°C is a little cooler, and 27°C is a touch warmer. After July 22, 2026 ends, the market checks the London City Airport weather station data on the Weather Underground website. Whatever the single highest temperature reading was that day, rounded to a whole number in Celsius, is the answer. One small thing to note: the market waits until the first data point from July 23 appears before settling, to make sure the full day's readings are in. Any corrections to the data published after that cutoff are ignored. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. The one headline listed is about politics in Bangladesh and has no connection to London temperatures. What would actually matter here is any long-range weather forecast for London in late July 2026, or historical temperature patterns for that date, neither of which were included. Weather forecasting more than a day or two ahead is genuinely difficult, and this market is asking about a specific date over a year away. The three leading options, 25, 26, and 27°C, are all close together, covering a realistic range for a London summer day. Small shifts in wind direction, cloud cover, or a passing weather system could easily push the reading one degree in either direction. That one-degree difference is the entire gap between outcomes, which makes this especially hard to call.

The odds right now

• 25°C40%
• 26°C26%
• 24°C21%
• 27°C13%
• 23°C3%
• 28°C1%
• 22°C1%
• 29°C0%
• 21°C0%
• 20°C or below0%
• 30°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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