Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of July 22, 2026 feel like in Hong Kong? Specifically, it asks which temperature band the single highest reading of the day will fall into. A result of 32°C means the peak heat that day stays between 32.0°C and 32.9°C, roughly a hot and humid summer afternoon. A result of 31°C means it stays a little cooler, and 33°C means it pushes into genuinely intense heat. July is deep summer in Hong Kong, so all three options are realistic. The market settles based on the official peak temperature published by the Hong Kong Observatory for July 22, 2026. The Observatory releases a daily data file called the Daily Extract, which lists the absolute maximum temperature for each day, measured to one decimal place, like 32.4°C. Whichever temperature band contains that number wins. One thing worth knowing: if the Observatory later corrects that number, the correction is ignored. The first published figure is final for this market. None of the provided news headlines relate to Hong Kong weather or climate conditions around this date. There is no recent weather reporting here to draw from. The kind of development that would matter is an active tropical cyclone or unusual air mass forecast to affect Hong Kong on or just before July 22, since those can push temperatures either up or down sharply. Weather one year out is genuinely unpredictable, and even short-range forecasts for a single day's peak temperature carry real error. July 22 in Hong Kong typically sees highs in the low 30s, which is why 31°C and 32°C together hold nearly three-quarters of the market. But the specific peak depends on cloud cover, wind direction, humidity, and whether a tropical system is nearby. A single degree separates each outcome, and the Observatory measures to one decimal, so the result could land right at a boundary.

The odds right now

• 32°C39%
• 31°C33%
• 33°C20%
• 30°C11%
• 29°C2%
• 34°C2%
• 35°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 36°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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