Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will San Francisco get on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at San Francisco International Airport (SFO), and which two-degree range that peak lands in. A win for '68-69°F' means the hottest moment of the day topped out somewhere between 68 and 69 degrees Fahrenheit, roughly a mild, comfortable summer day by most standards. San Francisco summers are famously cool compared to other American cities, so these ranges reflect that local reality. After July 24, 2026 ends, the market checks the Weather Underground website for the official high temperature logged at SFO that day. Whatever whole-number temperature is recorded as the daily peak determines which range wins. For example, if the high is 69°F, the '68-69°F' range wins. The market can only settle after the first data point for July 25 appears on that site, giving any late-day revisions a chance to be captured first. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees, so no decimals are involved. The two news items provided are about an art gallery exhibition and are unrelated to this weather question. No relevant weather news was included. For this market, the kind of update worth watching would be a National Weather Service forecast for the San Francisco Bay Area issued in the days just before July 24, 2026, or any unusual weather pattern alerts for that week. San Francisco's summer weather is notoriously hard to pin down even a few days out. The city sits right on the bay, and its high temperature on any given day depends heavily on whether a marine layer rolls in from the Pacific, which can keep things in the mid-60s, or pulls back inland, letting temperatures climb into the low 70s or higher. The market spreads its odds fairly evenly across several ranges, which reflects genuine uncertainty. The difference between ranges can come down to a single degree, making precise forecasting genuinely difficult.

The odds right now

• 68-69°F32%
• 70-71°F31%
• 72-73°F15%
• 66-67°F13%
• 74-75°F5%
• 64-65°F3%
• 62-63°F1%
• 60-61°F1%
• 76-77°F0%
• 59°F or below0%
• 78°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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