Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, how hot will it get in São Paulo? Specifically, it wants the single highest temperature recorded that day at Guarulhos Airport, rounded to a whole number in Celsius. A result of 27°C means the peak temperature that day hit somewhere in the 27-degree range, not 26 and not 28. Think of it as picking the top of the thermometer for that one day. After July 21 ends, the market checks the Weather Underground historical record for Guarulhos Airport (station code SBGR) and reads the highest temperature logged for that day in whole-degree Celsius. Whatever that number is, the matching option wins. The market waits until the first data point for July 22 appears on that page before settling, so it catches any last-minute corrections to the July 21 data. No other weather source counts. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. The only headline given is about dengue prevention, which has no bearing on daily temperature. To track this question, the thing worth watching closer to the date would be São Paulo weather forecasts for late July 2026, particularly any unusual heat or cold fronts moving through southeastern Brazil. July is São Paulo's winter, and daily highs in that season tend to cluster in a fairly narrow range, which is why the three leading options are just one degree apart each. The honest difficulty is that a single degree makes all the difference here, and small shifts in cloud cover, wind, or a passing cold front can easily push the peak from 27°C to 26°C or 28°C. Weather at that precision, more than a year out, is genuinely hard to pin down.

The odds right now

• 27°C52%
• 28°C38%
• 26°C7%
• 29°C7%
• 25°C1%
• 24°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 22°C or below0%
• 23°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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