Highest temperature in Seattle on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, how hot will Seattle get at its peak? Specifically, it wants to know which two-degree temperature band the day's highest temperature will fall into. The three leading options are 88-89°F, 90-91°F, and 92-93°F. Think of it as picking the right rung on a thermometer ladder for one specific afternoon in Seattle next summer. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on July 21, 2026, pulled from Weather Underground's station data for that location. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Fahrenheit, and whichever two-degree range contains that number wins. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 22 appears before officially closing, so any late corrections to July 21 readings made before that cutoff still count. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Since the date is still over a year away, there would be no meaningful forecast data yet anyway. What would matter closer to the date is any seasonal weather outlooks for the Pacific Northwest, particularly signals about summer heat patterns or the presence of heat dome conditions over the region. Weather is genuinely hard to predict even a week out, let alone a year. Seattle's July temperatures can vary quite a bit from year to year depending on whether a heat dome sets up over the region or cooler Pacific air keeps temperatures down. The market currently spreads its odds across three ranges, with 90-91°F holding the largest share at 38%, but 92-93°F and 88-89°F are both meaningfully possible. There are also ranges outside these three that could still occur, adding further spread.

The odds right now

• 90-91°F34%
• 92-93°F31%
• 88-89°F19%
• 86-87°F10%
• 94-95°F8%
• 84-85°F3%
• 96-97°F1%
• 82-83°F0%
• 98-99°F0%
• 81°F or below0%
• 100°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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