Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks: how hot will Seoul get on July 25, 2026, and specifically which temperature bucket will the day's peak land in. The three options, 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C, each represent a single degree. Think of it as picking the right rung on a thermometer ladder. Late July in Seoul is deep summer, typically humid and hot, so the question is really about whether the peak that day sits closer to a warm-but-normal day or nudges into genuinely hot territory. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged at Incheon International Airport on July 25, 2026, pulled from the Weather Underground history page for that station. The reading is rounded to a whole degree Celsius, no decimals. Whichever option, 29, 30, or 31, contains that number wins. One important detail: the market locks in the reading only after the first data point for July 26 appears, so any corrections made before that cutoff count, but corrections after it do not. No recent news relevant to Seoul's July 25 weather was provided. The one headline in the feed is about a hospital in Malaysia and has no connection to this market. The kind of development worth watching for would be a Korean Meteorological Administration forecast or a regional heat advisory issued in the days leading up to July 25, 2026. A one-degree difference is genuinely hard to call even with a good forecast. Late July in Seoul sits right in the heart of monsoon season, when temperatures and humidity can swing based on whether a rain band or a clear spell dominates that specific day. The three leading options are tightly clustered, with the market pricing 29°C and 30°C nearly equal at about 32-33% each. A single cloud cover shift or a change in wind direction could tip the day's peak from one bucket to the next, making this a close and weather-dependent call.

The odds right now

• 30°C33%
• 29°C32%
• 31°C19%
• 28°C16%
• 27°C4%
• 32°C or higher3%
• 26°C1%
• 25°C1%
• 24°C0%
• 22°C or below0%
• 23°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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