Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Shanghai get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day, measured in whole degrees Celsius, at the weather station located at Shanghai Pudong International Airport. July 22 falls deep in Shanghai's summer, when the city regularly sees hot, humid days in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, which is roughly 91 to 95 degrees Fahrenheit. The market settles based on the peak temperature recorded on July 22, 2026, at the Shanghai Pudong Airport weather station, as reported on Weather Underground. Whichever temperature bucket that peak reading falls into wins. The reading is rounded to a whole number, so 34.7°C counts as 34°C, not 35°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 23 appears on the site, after which any later corrections to the July 22 data are ignored. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the kind of updates that would matter most are seasonal weather forecasts or climate pattern signals, such as whether a strong El Niño or La Niña is expected for summer 2026. Those forecasts are not yet available at this range. Predicting a specific daily high temperature more than a year out is genuinely very difficult. The market currently spreads its probability across 33°C, 34°C, and 35°C fairly evenly, reflecting real uncertainty. Daily temperatures vary based on passing weather systems, cloud cover, humidity, and wind, none of which can be predicted precisely this far in advance. Even the best seasonal forecasts only give broad tendencies, not a single-day reading, so the spread across those three options makes intuitive sense.

The odds right now

• 34°C31%
• 35°C26%
• 33°C21%
• 36°C12%
• 32°C7%
• 31°C3%
• 37°C1%
• 38°C or higher0%
• 30°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 28°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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