Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 22, 2026, what will the single hottest temperature of the day be at Shenzhen's main airport, measured in whole degrees Celsius? The three options are 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C, and you are picking which one matches the actual peak reading that day. Think of it as guessing the top of the thermometer for one specific summer afternoon in a city in southern China. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on July 22, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website for that station. The reading must be in whole degrees Celsius. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 23 appears on that site. Any corrections to the July 22 data published before that cutoff count, but corrections published after do not. No recent weather news was provided that directly relates to Shenzhen temperatures on this specific date. The only headline provided is about dengue prevention at universities, which is not relevant to this question. What would matter to watch for is any seasonal forecast or heat advisory for southern China in late July 2026 as the date approaches. Late July in Shenzhen is reliably hot and humid, but the exact peak temperature on any single day is genuinely hard to pin down. The market spreads probability across three options, with 33°C leading at 36% and 32°C close behind at 28%. A passing cloud, a brief rain shower, or slightly stronger sea breeze can shift the peak by a degree or two. Airport stations can also read slightly differently from city-center stations, adding a small extra layer of unpredictability.

The odds right now

• 32°C37%
• 33°C32%
• 31°C17%
• 34°C11%
• 30°C5%
• 29°C2%
• 28°C1%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C or higher0%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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