Highest temperature in Singapore on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, what is the single hottest temperature of the day at Singapore's Changi Airport, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius? The three options are 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C, and only one will win. To picture the difference: 31°C feels like a warm, humid afternoon, 32°C is noticeably hotter and sticky, and 33°C is the kind of heat where you feel it the moment you step outside. After July 21, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for the Changi Airport station and reads the single highest temperature logged that day, in whole-degree Celsius. Whichever option, 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C, matches that number wins. One important detail: temperature readings can be revised during the day, but once the first data point for July 22 appears on that website, the number is locked in and no further changes count. None of the recent news provided, currency movements, a salvage operation, or a health story, has any connection to Singapore's weather on July 21. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of update that would matter is a short-range weather forecast for Singapore in the days just before July 21, or any unusual climate pattern affecting the region at that time. Singapore's daily high temperature is surprisingly stable, typically hovering between 31°C and 33°C year-round, which is exactly why the three options are clustered so tightly. The market prices 32°C as the most likely outcome at 46%, but 31°C follows closely at 37%. The honest difficulty is that a single degree separates these outcomes, and small factors like cloud cover, a passing rain shower, or the timing of afternoon thunderstorms can easily push the peak one degree in either direction. Precise single-day temperature prediction a year out is genuinely hard.

The odds right now

• 31°C46%
• 32°C35%
• 30°C14%
• 29°C5%
• 33°C4%
• 34°C1%
• 28°C1%
• 25°C or below0%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C0%
• 35°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Singapore Changi Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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