Highest temperature in Taipei on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks: what will the hottest reading of the day be at a specific weather station in Taipei on July 21, 2026? You are choosing between temperature ranges, with the main contenders being 35°C, 36°C, and 37°C. To picture it physically: 36°C is about 97°F, a genuinely sweltering summer day. The market is asking you to pick the right 'bucket' for the peak heat that day, not an average or a range of your own choosing. The market settles on whichever temperature bucket matches the single highest reading recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station on July 21, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. The temperature is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so 35.7°C would count as 35°C, not 36°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on that page. Any corrections published before that cutoff count, but corrections after it do not. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. The one headline listed is about an Indian parliamentary session and has no connection to Taipei temperatures. For this kind of market, the most useful things to watch would be Taipei weather forecasts for late July 2026 as the date approaches, or any alerts about unusual heat or typhoon activity in Taiwan. July weather in Taipei is genuinely hard to nail down to a single degree. Late July is deep in Taiwan's hot, humid summer, so highs in the mid-to-upper 30s are common, but the exact peak on any one day can shift based on wind, cloud cover, or nearby storm systems. The market spreads probability across three main outcomes, with 36°C the current favorite at 42%, but 35°C and 37°C together account for most of the remaining probability. A single degree of difference is a very narrow target.

The odds right now

• 36°C36%
• 35°C26%
• 34°C17%
• 37°C14%
• 33°C2%
• 38°C1%
• 32°C1%
• 31°C0%
• 39°C or higher0%
• 29°C or below0%
• 30°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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