Highest temperature in Taipei on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 22, 2026, how hot will it get in Taipei? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature of the day at one particular weather station, Taipei Songshan Airport. The three options are 34°C, 35°C, or 36°C, which in rough Fahrenheit terms are about 93, 95, and 97 degrees. You are picking which of those three bands the peak temperature falls into on that one day. After July 22, 2026 ends, the market settles by looking up the recorded daily high temperature at Taipei Songshan Airport Station on the Weather Underground website. Whatever whole-degree Celsius number that site shows as the day's peak determines which option wins. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point for July 23 appears before locking in, which allows any late corrections to the July 22 data to be counted. After that cutoff, no further revisions matter. No specific recent news was provided for this market. Since the event is still over a year away, there is no forecast data yet that would be meaningful. What would matter closer to the date: seasonal outlooks for Taiwan's summer, any news about unusual heat patterns in East Asia, and eventually the actual short-range weather forecasts for Taipei in late July 2026. Weather prediction a full year out is genuinely very difficult. The market currently spreads probability fairly evenly across 34°C, 35°C, and 36°C, which reflects honest uncertainty rather than a clear lean. July is deep in Taipei's hot, humid summer, so temperatures in that range are historically normal, but the exact peak on one specific day depends on factors like cloud cover, wind, and storm activity that no one can know this far ahead. A single degree difference is all that separates each outcome.

The odds right now

• 35°C36%
• 36°C34%
• 34°C14%
• 37°C or higher12%
• 33°C6%
• 32°C1%
• 31°C1%
• 30°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 27°C or below0%
• 28°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.