Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Tel Aviv get on July 21, 2026, at its peak? You are choosing between three possible high temperatures for that day: 32°C (about 90°F), 33°C (about 91°F), or 34°C (about 93°F). A win for one option means the thermometer peaked in that range and not the others. It is a simple question about a single day's afternoon heat in a Mediterranean coastal city during midsummer. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded by NOAA at Ben Gurion International Airport on July 21, 2026. NOAA logs temperatures in whole degrees Celsius, so a reading of 33.7°C would count as 33°C. The market cannot close until the first data point from July 22 appears on the NOAA page, confirming the day is over. Any late corrections to July 21 readings are accepted up until that first July 22 data point, then the record is locked. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. For a market like this, the kind of update that would matter is a seasonal forecast for the eastern Mediterranean in summer 2026, or reports of an unusual heat pattern developing in the region closer to the date. July in Tel Aviv is reliably hot, so the range of outcomes is already narrow: the three options span just two degrees. The market prices 33°C as most likely at 62%, with 34°C next at 22% and 32°C at 16%. The honest uncertainty here is that a single degree separates the outcomes, and small shifts in wind direction, humidity, or a passing weather system can easily push the peak reading one degree higher or lower. One year out, no forecast is precise enough to resolve that margin.

The odds right now

• 33°C65%
• 34°C17%
• 32°C14%
• 31°C3%
• 35°C1%
• 37°C0%
• 30°C or below0%
• 36°C0%
• 38°C0%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.