Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 22, 2026, how hot will Tel Aviv get at its peak? The three options are 32°C (about 90°F), 33°C (about 91°F), or 34°C (about 93°F). You pick the bucket that matches the single highest temperature recorded that day. It is a straightforward temperature forecast, nothing more, just translated into a multiple-choice question. The market settles based on one specific data source: the NOAA weather station at Ben Gurion International Airport. Whatever the highest whole-degree Celsius reading is in that station's official log for July 22, 2026, that is the answer. The market cannot close until the first reading from July 23 appears in the log, confirming the previous day is complete. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees, so a reading like 33.7°C would count as 33°C, not 34°C. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. For a weather question like this, what would matter most is any published long-range seasonal forecast for the eastern Mediterranean in late July 2026, or any notable climate pattern such as an unusually strong heat dome or cooler-than-normal summer outlook for the region. Late July in Tel Aviv is reliably hot, so the question is not whether it will be warm but exactly which degree it lands on. The spread across 32, 33, and 34°C is tight, just two degrees separating all three options. A single passing cloud, a sea breeze, or a heat pulse can shift the peak reading by one degree. Long-range weather forecasting a year out is genuinely unreliable at that level of precision, which is why the market spreads its weight fairly evenly across the top two options.

The odds right now

• 33°C50%
• 34°C39%
• 35°C9%
• 32°C5%
• 31°C1%
• 30°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C or higher0%
• 29°C0%
• 36°C0%
• 28°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.