Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, what will the single hottest temperature of the day be in Warsaw, measured at the city's main airport? You pick a temperature, and if the thermometer peaks at exactly that degree on that day, your pick wins. It is not about averages or overnight lows, just the one highest reading of the whole day, in whole degrees Celsius. After July 21, 2026 ends, the market looks up the peak temperature recorded that day at Warsaw Chopin Airport on the Weather Underground website. Whichever listed option matches that number wins. One important detail: the reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree, so a reading of 18.7°C counts as 18°C, not 19°C. The market waits until the first data point for July 22 appears before it officially settles, to allow any late corrections to the July 21 data. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the kind of updates that would actually matter are seasonal forecasts or climate trend reports for Central Europe in late July, none of which are available here. Weather a full year out is genuinely impossible to forecast with precision, so the current odds reflect historical patterns for Warsaw in late July rather than any actual forecast. July is typically warm in Warsaw, with highs often in the high teens to mid-twenties Celsius, which is why 17 to 19°C covers the most probable range. But any single day can be shaped by a passing cold front or an unexpected heat surge, and that kind of day-specific variability is exactly what makes a precise one-degree prediction difficult even close to the date.

The odds right now

• 18°C49%
• 19°C29%
• 17°C21%
• 16°C2%
• 20°C1%
• 21°C0%
• 15°C0%
• 22°C or higher0%
• 12°C or below0%
• 13°C0%
• 14°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.