Highest temperature in Wellington on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 25, 2026, what will the warmest temperature of the day be in Wellington, New Zealand? July is mid-winter in New Zealand, so the question is really about a cool winter day, not a heat wave. The three options are 11°C, 12°C, or 13°C, which in everyday terms is the range between a chilly 52°F and a mild 55°F. The market currently favors 12°C as the most likely outcome, with 13°C second and 11°C third. The market settles on whichever single temperature, in whole degrees Celsius, is recorded as the day's highest at Wellington International Airport on July 25, 2026. The data comes from Weather Underground's record for that specific station. Temperatures are rounded to whole numbers, so a reading of 12.7°C would count as 12°C, not 13°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 26 appears on that site, after which any later corrections to the July 25 data are ignored. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the kind of development worth watching for would be a seasonal weather forecast or climate outlook for Wellington in July 2026, published closer to the date by New Zealand's national weather service, MetService. Long-range weather prediction is genuinely hard, and a single day over a year from now is essentially impossible to forecast with precision. The difference between the three options is just two degrees total, which is a very narrow range. Wellington is also famously unpredictable, known for sharp wind shifts and rapid temperature changes. A slightly stormier or calmer than normal winter day could easily push the reading from one bracket into another. The market's spread across all three options reflects that honest uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 12°C48%
• 13°C27%
• 11°C22%
• 14°C7%
• 9°C0%
• 10°C0%
• 15°C0%
• 8°C0%
• 7°C or below0%
• 17°C or higher0%
• 16°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.