How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking you to predict a count: how many earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or stronger will happen anywhere on Earth during one specific week in July 2026. A magnitude 5.5 earthquake is strong enough to cause minor damage to buildings and be widely felt by people nearby. The market is not about one single event, it is about the global total across seven days. The different outcome brackets (like 9, or more than 14, or 8 or fewer) are the choices people are betting on. After the week ends on July 26, 2026, the market settles using the official USGS earthquake database, which tracks every significant earthquake worldwide. Whoever counts the qualifying events in that database for those exact dates wins. One important edge case: if a borderline earthquake near the 5.5 threshold needs a magnitude revision, the market can stay open an extra 24 hours. The window runs from July 20 at 12:00 AM Eastern Time to July 26 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The one headline available is about an unrelated political topic. What would actually matter here is any major seismic event during the market window itself, particularly a large earthquake that triggers a swarm of aftershocks, which could push the weekly total significantly higher. Earthquakes are genuinely random and cannot be forecast with any precision over a one-week window. The Earth averages roughly 10 to 20 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher per week globally, but that number swings wildly. A single major earthquake can trigger dozens of aftershocks, pushing the weekly count far above normal. The spread of current odds across several outcome brackets reflects that reality: the market sees no single count as clearly dominant, because the honest truth is that nobody knows.

The odds right now

• ≤821%
• >1418%
• 915%
• 1013%
• 1113%
• 1211%
• 139%
• 148%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 26, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.