How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking you to predict a count: how many earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or stronger will happen anywhere on Earth during one specific week in late July and early August 2026. A magnitude 5.5 quake is strong enough to feel clearly indoors and cause minor damage near the epicenter. This is not about one event in one place. It is a global tally across every fault line on the planet over seven days. The different outcome brackets (like 6 or fewer, exactly 8, or more than 13) are the choices. At the end of the window, from July 27 through August 2, 2026, the market settles based on the official USGS earthquake database, which tracks global seismic activity in real time. Whoever runs the market counts every quake at 5.5 or above logged during those dates and matches the total to the correct bracket. One important detail: if a quake happens on the last day, the market can stay open an extra 24 hours, because magnitude readings sometimes get revised slightly after the initial report. The USGS data is the final word. No recent news was provided that relates to this market. That is not unusual here, since this question is about global earthquake activity over a future week, not a single anticipated event. What would be worth watching closer to the window is any reports of elevated seismic activity in high-frequency zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, Indonesia, Japan, or Chile, since those regions produce many of the world's 5.5-plus quakes. The honest truth is that earthquake counts over short windows are genuinely hard to predict, even for seismologists. The Earth produces roughly 10 to 20 earthquakes at magnitude 5.5 or above every week on average, but the actual number in any given week varies significantly. A quiet week might see 6 or 7. An active one could see 15 or more, especially if a large quake triggers aftershocks. There is no reliable way to foresee when fault lines will slip. The spread of odds across many brackets reflects that real unpredictability.

The odds right now

• ≤624%
• >1313%
• 712%
• 912%
• 812%
• 1011%
• 118%
• 136%
• 126%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 2, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.