How many dissent at the July Fed meeting?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how many members of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee will vote against the group's decision at their July 2026 meeting. The Fed's main policy body, the FOMC, has about a dozen voting members, and they decide whether to raise, lower, or hold interest rates. Most of the time, everyone votes together. A dissent means one or more members publicly disagreed and voted differently, which is notable because it signals internal tension about where the economy is headed. The market settles based on the official FOMC statement released at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on July 29, 2026. That statement always lists each member's vote, so the count of dissenting votes on the interest rate decision is a matter of public record within minutes of the announcement. The market can resolve as soon as that statement is published. There is no ambiguity about who decides: it is the Fed's own official release, with credible news reporting as a backup confirmation. No relevant news was provided for this market. The one headline available is unrelated to the Federal Reserve. To follow this question, the most useful things to watch would be upcoming Fed speeches, economic data releases like inflation or jobs reports, and any public disagreements among Fed officials about the right direction for interest rates. The main challenge is that this meeting is about a year away, which is a long time in economics. A lot can change: inflation could spike or fall, the job market could shift, and the composition of voting members rotates each year. Dissents are also genuinely rare, which is why zero dissents leads at 36%, but the market gives meaningful odds to one or two dissents as well. The honest answer is that nobody knows today how much internal disagreement will exist inside the Fed next July.

The odds right now

• 0-18.0 pts (1w)37%
• 1+1.0 pts (1w)22%
• 2+12.3 pts (1w)22%
• 3+3.0 pts (1w)16%
• 4++0.5 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 29, 2026

The July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for July 28-29, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on July 29, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.