How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how many times the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates during 2026, with three possible answers: zero hikes, exactly one hike, or exactly two hikes. A rate hike means the Fed makes borrowing money more expensive across the economy, which it typically does to slow down inflation. Right now the market leans toward one hike being most likely at 48%, zero hikes at 30%, and two hikes at 20%. Each "hike" is counted in units of 25 basis points, which equals 0.25 percentage points. The market settles based on the official Federal Reserve announcements after each scheduled FOMC meeting in 2026, plus any surprise emergency meetings. Every 25 basis points of rate increase counts as one hike, so a single 50 bps move counts as two. One small edge case worth knowing: any hike between 1 and 24 basis points also counts as a full hike. The market stays open until December 31, 2026, to catch any last-minute emergency actions. If a given outcome becomes mathematically impossible mid-year, that option closes early. None of the provided news headlines relate to the Federal Reserve, US interest rates, or American monetary policy. There is nothing in the recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be US inflation data, employment reports, or official statements from Fed chair Jerome Powell about the direction of rate policy. The core difficulty is that Fed decisions depend on data that does not exist yet: inflation readings, jobs numbers, and economic growth through late 2026. If inflation stays stubborn, hikes become more likely. If the economy slows sharply, the Fed might hold or even cut. The three-way split in the odds reflects genuine disagreement, not a clear favorite. Unexpected events, like a financial shock or a sudden inflation shift, could push the outcome in any direction and are, by definition, hard to anticipate.

The odds right now

• 1 (25 bps)+13.0 pts (1w)41%
• 0 (0 bps)-15.5 pts (1w)32%
• 2 (50 bps)+7.0 pts (1w)22%
• 3 (75 bps)+4.1 pts (1w)6%
• 4 (100 bps)+0.7 pts (1w)1%
• 5+ (125+ bps)-0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.