Fed rate hike by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate before a specific meeting date. The Fed sets a target range for the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate banks charge each other overnight. When the Fed raises this rate, borrowing becomes more expensive across the whole economy: mortgages, car loans, business loans all tend to go up. A Yes means a rate hike happens by that meeting. A No means rates stay flat or go down instead. Each of the three options resolves Yes if the Fed raises the upper bound of its target interest rate at any point starting December 16, 2025 and up through the completion of that specific meeting. The July, September, and October 2026 FOMC meetings each get their own Yes or No. An emergency rate hike outside a scheduled meeting would also count. If a meeting is delayed by more than 7 days from its scheduled date and no hike has happened yet, that option resolves No automatically. The most relevant headline here is that President Trump has publicly urged the Fed to cut interest rates, citing inflation concerns. That is notable because it points in the opposite direction of a rate hike. The other headlines about petroleum reserves and a Dutch company's earnings are not directly relevant to this market. No news suggests a rate hike is being prepared or signaled by Fed officials themselves, which would be the key thing to watch for. The biggest challenge is that the Fed's decisions depend on economic data that has not happened yet: future inflation readings, jobs reports, and overall growth. The market currently prices the October meeting at 66% and September at 61%, suggesting traders lean toward a hike happening, but the July meeting sits at only 26%, implying uncertainty about timing. The Fed also strongly values its independence from political pressure, so presidential calls for cuts do not guarantee the Fed will follow. A lot can change between now and late 2026.

The odds right now

• October Meeting+16.5 pts (1w)73%
• September Meeting+16.5 pts (1w)69%
• July Meeting+9.3 pts (1w)22%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 29, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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