How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks you to guess how many Atlantic storms will reach hurricane strength during the 2026 season. A hurricane means sustained winds of at least 74 mph, which is Category 1 or higher on the scale most weather apps use. The three buckets are: very few hurricanes (1 to 3), a moderate number (4 to 6), or a busy season (7 or more). The market also has a '0' option if no hurricanes form at all, though the current odds shown do not include that bracket separately. The market settles on November 30, 2026 at midnight ET, based on official advisories from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the U.S. government agency that tracks Atlantic storms. Every time the NHC formally declares a storm has crossed the 74 mph threshold, it counts. One important edge case: if the NHC later revises a storm's strength downward after the initial advisory, the storm still counts. Only the first official declaration matters, not any corrections made afterward. None of the provided news headlines relate to Atlantic hurricane activity or the 2026 season forecast. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be seasonal outlooks from NOAA or Colorado State University, sea surface temperature reports in the Atlantic, and La Nina or El Nino updates, since those climate patterns strongly influence how active a hurricane season becomes. Hurricane season forecasting is genuinely difficult, even for meteorologists. The main variables, including Atlantic sea surface temperatures, wind shear patterns, and whether El Nino or La Nina conditions develop, interact in complex ways that are hard to pin down months in advance. The market currently places the most weight on 1 to 3 hurricanes at 40%, but a meaningful portion of probability sits on higher counts too. Seasons can also be heavily shaped by a few unpredictable weeks in August and September, which makes early predictions especially uncertain.

The odds right now

• 1-340%
• 4-633%
• 7+21%
• 03%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 1, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market will resolve to "0". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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