Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Iran will formally promise to stop all uranium enrichment before the end of September 2026. Uranium enrichment is the process of refining uranium to a level where it can be used in a nuclear weapon or reactor. A Yes means Iran makes a clear public pledge to stop that process entirely. A No means Iran never makes that pledge, even if it agrees to slow down or limit its nuclear program in other ways. The market settles Yes only if Iran publicly commits to ending all uranium enrichment, not just reducing it. That commitment can come as a solo announcement from Iran, or as part of a deal with the US or Israel. Crucially, a promise to cap enrichment below weapons-grade levels does not count. Only a full stop qualifies. The deadline is September 30, 2026. The call will be made based on what credible news outlets consistently report. The recent headlines suggest the situation is moving in the opposite direction from Yes. US strikes on Iran were reported in late July 2026, Iran launched attacks on neighboring countries, and oil prices rose sharply amid fears about major trade routes being disrupted. Active military conflict between the US and Iran makes a formal Iranian pledge to end enrichment look very distant right now. The market prices this at only 6%, meaning the market sees it as very unlikely. The honest uncertainty here is not really about two equal sides. It is about whether something truly unexpected happens: a sudden ceasefire, a dramatic shift in Iranian leadership, or a negotiated deal that includes a full enrichment stop. Given that the news shows active military conflict as of late July 2026, with less than three months left on the clock, the window for that kind of reversal is narrow.

The odds right now

• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?-2.5 pts (1w)6%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.