July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC): how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks: by exactly how much will July 2026 be warmer than the historical average, according to NASA's official global temperature record? The number being tracked is called a temperature anomaly, which means the difference between this July's average global temperature and the long-term baseline NASA uses for comparison. A result in the 1.20, 1.24ºC bracket means July 2026 was roughly one and a quarter degrees warmer than that baseline, which is the range the market currently finds most plausible. This market settles based on one specific number: whatever NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index reports for July 2026, in their published data table. Whichever bracket that number falls into wins, and the first published figure counts even if NASA later revises it. If NASA's data is unavailable by September 1, 2026, the market automatically resolves to the lowest bracket shown, which is 1.15, 1.19ºC. That fallback rule is worth knowing because it is unusual. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The one headline listed is about a financial company's stock holdings and has no connection to global temperatures. What would actually matter here: monthly temperature reports from NASA or NOAA, updates on ocean heat conditions like La Niña or El Niño, or any major climate anomaly announcements in the weeks leading up to August 2026. Even with strong scientific tools, monthly global temperature readings can surprise. The 1.20, 1.24ºC bracket is priced at 83%, so the market is clearly leaning one way, and the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected pushes the reading into a neighboring bracket. Ocean heat patterns, unusual weather events, and volcanic activity can all shift a monthly figure enough to matter at this level of precision. The brackets are only 0.05ºC wide, so even a small surprise can tip the result.

The odds right now

• 1.20–1.24ºC-1.5 pts (1w)83%
• 1.25–1.29ºC+6.5 pts (1w)13%
• 1.15–1.19ºC-3.5 pts (1w)3%
• >1.29ºC+0.6 pts (1w)1%
• <1.10ºC-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• 1.10–1.14ºC-1.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 1, 2026

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.