Measles cases in U.S. by July 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how many confirmed measles cases the U.S. will have recorded by the end of July 2026. There are three separate yes/no questions bundled here, one for each threshold: 2,300 cases, 2,350 cases, and 2,400 cases. A 'Yes' on any of them means the official CDC count reached that number or higher before the deadline. A 'No' means the count stayed below it. Think of them as three bars on a chart, and the question is how high the outbreak climbs. Each threshold resolves Yes if the CDC's official 'Total Cases' counter for measles in 2026 hits that number by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The CDC's own public tracker is the only source that counts, so state-level health agency reports do not matter for settlement even if they show different numbers. If the CDC tracker goes offline, the market operator will use another credible source instead. No specific recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching would be CDC weekly updates on confirmed case counts, news about active outbreak clusters in specific states, and any changes to vaccination coverage or public health response efforts. The 2,300 threshold is priced at 94%, meaning the market sees it as nearly certain but not guaranteed. The jump to 2,350 drops to 40%, and 2,400 sits at just 2%, which shows the market expects growth to slow or stop somewhere in that range. The real uncertainty is the pace of the outbreak: measles can spread quickly in under-vaccinated communities but can also plateau once outbreaks are contained. Timing matters too, since cases reported after the July 31 deadline do not count.

The odds right now

• 2300-0.5 pts (1w)95%
• 2350-50.5 pts (1w)39%
• 2400-23.0 pts (1w)3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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