Kansas Governor Republican Primary Margin of Victory: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how big the gap will be between the first and second place finishers in the Kansas Republican governor's primary on August 4, 2026. It is not asking who wins, only how comfortably they win. A large margin means one candidate dominated; a small margin means it was a close race. The names Masterson and Sarnecki appear to be leading candidates, and each bracket represents a range of winning margin, measured as a percentage-point gap in the final vote share. After the August 4, 2026 primary, the Kansas Secretary of State publishes official results showing each candidate's share of the vote. The market then settles into whichever bracket matches the gap between first and second place. For example, if Masterson gets 55% and the second-place finisher gets 28%, the gap is 27 points, which falls in the 25%+ bracket. One edge case worth knowing: if results are still disputed or unconfirmed after November 30, 2026, the market resolves as "Other" regardless of what happened. None of the recent headlines provided relate to the Kansas Republican governor's primary. The news items cover unrelated topics from other states and issues. There is genuinely nothing from the provided news to point to here. The kind of development worth watching for would be new polling, a candidate dropping out, or a notable endorsement that shifts how competitive the race looks. The main challenge is that primary elections in a single state are hard to poll well, and turnout among Republican primary voters can shift quickly based on late momentum, endorsements, or campaign spending. If only two serious candidates are running, the margin could be wide. If a third candidate splits the vote, margins compress. The market currently prices a 25-plus point Masterson win at 50%, so it leans toward a blowout, but primary surprises are common enough that real uncertainty remains.

The odds right now

• Masterson 25%+39%
• Masterson 10–15%13%
• Sarnecki <5%11%
• Masterson <5%10%
• Sarnecki 10%+10%
• Masterson 15–20%8%
• Masterson 20–25%7%
• Masterson 5–10%6%
• Sarnecki 5–10%4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

The Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election will be held on August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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