KS-04 House Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which party will win one specific congressional seat in Kansas. KS-04 is Kansas's 4th congressional district, which covers Wichita and the surrounding south-central part of the state. A Yes for Republican means a Republican candidate wins that seat in the 2026 midterm elections; a Yes for Democrat means a Democrat wins it instead. Whoever wins represents that district in the U.S. House of Representatives for a two-year term. The market settles based on who actually wins the KS-04 race on November 3, 2026. The winner's party is determined by how they are listed on the ballot, or by which party they publicly intend to caucus with if no clear label exists. The result is called using credible news reporting first, and the official Federal Election Commission results if anything is disputed. One thing worth noting: an independent candidate who wins would be assigned to whichever major party they said they would caucus with. None of the provided recent headlines relate directly to the KS-04 race or Kansas politics. The news covers U.S.-Iran talks and a Smithsonian-related story, neither of which has an obvious connection to this district. The kind of news that would actually matter here includes candidate announcements, local polling, primary results, or any major shift in the national political environment heading into the midterms. This race looks heavily one-sided. The market currently prices a Republican win at 93%, which reflects that KS-04 is a historically deep-red district that Republicans have held comfortably for years. At that price level, the honest uncertainty is not really about two equal sides competing. It is about whether something unexpected happens: an unusually strong Democratic candidate, a major national wave, a Republican scandal, or a contested primary that weakens the eventual nominee. Surprises are rare here, but they are not impossible.

The odds right now

• Republican Party93%
• Democratic Party-1.0 pts (1w)7%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 3, 2026

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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