Likud Party Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who will come in second place on Likud's official candidate list for Israel's next Knesset election. In Israeli politics, Likud holds an internal party vote, called a primary, where party members rank candidates. The person who wins that internal vote earns the number-two spot on Likud's list, right behind party leader Benjamin Netanyahu. A Yes for a named candidate means they won that internal race. The 'No Primary' option means the vote simply never happened in time. The market settles on whoever wins the Likud internal primary election and earns second place on the party's official candidate list. The deadline is whichever comes first: the 2026 Knesset election day, or December 31, 2026. One important edge case: even if Likud officially announces a cancellation, that alone is not enough to settle this as 'No Primary'. The vote must actually not take place. If results are unclear by the deadline, whoever sits second on the released party list wins instead. None of the recent news provided relates to this market. There are no headlines about Likud, Israeli party politics, or the 2026 primary schedule. The kind of news that would matter here includes any announcement from Likud about scheduling or cancelling the primary, or reporting on the internal campaigns of candidates like Amir Ohana or Tally Gotliv. Three things genuinely compete here. First, it is unclear whether the primary will happen at all, which is why 'No Primary' sits tied for the lead at 30%. Second, Israeli political timelines shift often, especially during wartime or coalition pressure, so scheduling is unpredictable. Third, even if the primary happens, internal Likud politics are driven by a relatively small base of party members whose preferences are hard to poll reliably from the outside. The spread across multiple candidates reflects real disagreement, not noise.

The odds right now

• Amir Ohana30%
• No Primary by Knesset Election28%
• Tally Gotliv13%
• David Amsalem10%
• Almog Cohen10%
• Amichai Chikli10%
• Eli Cohen8%
• Miki Zohar8%
• Yoav Kisch8%
• Moshe Saada7%
• Boaz Bismuth7%
• David Bitan5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 26, 2026

Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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