Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 24, 2026, what will the coldest temperature of the day be in Hong Kong? The options are specific degree ranges, and you are guessing which bucket the lowest recorded temperature falls into. July is deep summer in Hong Kong, so we are not talking about cold weather. The question is really about how warm the overnight low stays, with the leading options clustered tightly between 26°C and 28°C, which is roughly 79°F to 82°F. The market settles based on one specific official number: the "Absolute Daily Min" temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on July 24, 2026, published in their Daily Extract. Whatever degree range contains that number wins. The temperature is measured to one decimal place, so 26.8°C counts as 26°C, for example. One important detail: if the Observatory later corrects or revises that number after it is first published, the revision does not count. The original published figure is final. The two recent news items provided, one about China-India diplomacy and one about a Thai airport rail disruption, have no connection to Hong Kong weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would actually matter is a weather forecast or meteorological outlook for Hong Kong around July 24, 2026, such as whether a tropical storm or unusually strong heat is expected. The core challenge is that daily low temperatures in Hong Kong in late July are genuinely bunched close together. The difference between a 26°C night and a 28°C night can come down to cloud cover, humidity, sea breeze, or whether a tropical system is nearby. The market currently spreads probability fairly evenly across three adjacent options, which reflects how hard it is to distinguish between them a year out. No forecast model is reliable at that range, and a single weather event could shift the answer by a couple of degrees.

The odds right now

• 28°C37%
• 29°C18%
• 27°C17%
• 26°C16%
• 25°C8%
• 30°C1%
• 24°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%
• 23°C0%
• 22°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.