Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how cool will Shanghai get overnight on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it asks for the single lowest temperature reading of the day at Shanghai's Pudong Airport weather station. July is deep summer in Shanghai, so even the overnight low stays warm. The three options, 26°C, 27°C, and 28°C, are all roughly in the range of a humid, hot summer night, sitting between about 79°F and 82°F. The market settles based on one specific number: the lowest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on July 23, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whichever option, 26°C, 27°C, or 28°C, contains that number wins. The market waits until the first data point for July 24 appears before settling, so any late corrections made before that cutoff still count. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. The two headlines available are about geopolitics and have no bearing on Shanghai weather. For this kind of market, what would actually matter is a short-range weather forecast for Shanghai around July 23, 2026, or any unusual weather pattern, like a tropical storm or a cold front, approaching the region. Weather forecasting more than a few days out is genuinely hard, and this market sits over a year away, so no meaningful forecast exists yet. Even close to the date, overnight lows in Shanghai in late July can shift a degree or two based on cloud cover, humidity, rain, or wind direction. The three options are separated by just one degree each, which is a very narrow margin. A single passing shower or a slight shift in wind can easily push the reading from one bucket into the next.

The odds right now

• 26°C37%
• 27°C26%
• 28°C10%
• 25°C9%
• 29°C7%
• 24°C1%
• 30°C0%
• 23°C or below0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.