Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on the night of July 23, 2026 in Hong Kong, how cold will it get at its coldest point? The Hong Kong Observatory measures the single lowest temperature of each day, and this market wants to know which degree-Celsius bucket that number falls into. A result of 28°C means a warm tropical night with barely any cooling; a result of 26°C means noticeably cooler air moved through. For context, July is Hong Kong's hottest month, so even 26°C at night is quite warm by most standards. The market settles on whichever temperature range contains the official lowest reading published by the Hong Kong Observatory for July 23, 2026, found in their Daily Extract data. The key detail is precision: the Observatory records to one decimal place, so a reading of 27.6°C would count as 27°C. The market cannot close until that data is formally published, and importantly, if the Observatory later corrects the number, the correction does not count. Only the first published reading matters. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. The two items cover a biotech trial and a diplomatic story, neither of which touches Hong Kong weather. To follow this market meaningfully, the thing to watch is weather forecasts for Hong Kong in the days leading up to July 23, 2026, and whether any tropical systems or unusual air masses are expected to affect the region. July weather in Hong Kong is genuinely hard to pin down a year in advance. The biggest wild card is whether a typhoon, tropical storm, or unusual southwesterly airflow passes near Hong Kong around that date, which can shift nighttime lows by several degrees. The market currently leans toward 28°C as the most likely outcome, but with 40% odds that is far from certain. Historical July lows vary, and a single weather system can easily push the reading into a different bracket entirely.

The odds right now

• 28°C40%
• 27°C25%
• 26°C16%
• 29°C9%
• 25°C5%
• 30°C1%
• 24°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%
• 22°C or below0%
• 23°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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