Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how cool will Hong Kong get on the night of July 25, 2026? Specifically, it is asking what the single lowest temperature reading will be at any point during that day, as measured by the official Hong Kong Observatory. The three choices, 26°C, 27°C, and 28°C, represent rough bands, and you are picking which band the real minimum falls into. In practical terms, these are all warm temperatures, typical of a Hong Kong summer night where it rarely cools much even after dark. The market settles based on one specific number: the "Absolute Daily Min" figure published by the Hong Kong Observatory in their official Daily Extract for July 25, 2026. That is the single coldest reading recorded at their station on that date. The temperature is measured to one decimal place, so 26.6°C would fall in the 26°C band. Importantly, once the Observatory publishes the data, that first published figure is final for this market, even if the Observatory later corrects it. None of the provided news stories are relevant to Hong Kong's weather on July 25, 2026. For this market, the kind of development worth watching would be weather forecasts issued in the days leading up to July 25, particularly any signals about tropical storms, unusual wind patterns, or regional pressure systems that could push temperatures slightly higher or lower than the seasonal average. July is deep summer in Hong Kong, so the temperature bands here are quite narrow, all clustered between 26°C and 28°C. The market currently prices 27°C as the most likely outcome at 50%, which means genuine uncertainty remains across all three bands. The challenge is that overnight lows in Hong Kong in July are sensitive to small factors: cloud cover, humidity, wind direction, and whether a tropical system is nearby. A single passing shower or a shift in the prevailing wind can nudge the reading across a band boundary.

The odds right now

• 27°C50%
• 26°C31%
• 28°C14%
• 25°C5%
• 29°C5%
• 30°C2%
• 22°C or below2%
• 24°C2%
• 23°C1%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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