Lowest temperature in NYC on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the coldest moment of July 23, 2026 feel like in New York City? Specifically, it picks a two-degree temperature band, and you are guessing which band the overnight or early-morning low will fall into. A result of 66-67°F means a warm summer night that never really cools down. A result of 64-65°F means a slightly more comfortable night. A result of 68-69°F means a muggy, barely-cooling evening typical of a hot New York summer. The market settles based on the single lowest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on July 23, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's historical log for that station. The reading is rounded to a whole degree Fahrenheit, and it must fall within one of the listed two-degree ranges. The result is locked in once the first temperature reading for July 24 appears on that page. Any corrections published before that cutoff count, but corrections made after that point do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the kind of news that would actually matter here does not exist yet. Closer to July 2026, the things worth watching would be extended weather forecasts, any unusual heat patterns in the northeastern United States, and whether a heat wave or a cooler air mass is moving through New York City around that date. A year out, weather prediction is essentially impossible, which makes this genuinely hard to call. Even professional forecasters cannot predict a specific overnight low more than about two weeks in advance with any confidence. The three leading ranges are all closely priced, with the market spreading probability fairly evenly across roughly 64°F to 69°F. The real uncertainty is simply that summer overnight lows in NYC vary noticeably from night to night depending on humidity, cloud cover, and wind, none of which are knowable this far ahead.

The odds right now

• 66-67°F30%
• 64-65°F27%
• 68-69°F25%
• 62-63°F3%
• 70-71°F2%
• 60-61°F1%
• 58-59°F1%
• 72-73°F1%
• 56-57°F0%
• 55°F or below0%
• 74°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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