Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 23, 2026, what will the coldest temperature of the day be in the Seoul area? The measurement comes from the weather station at Incheon International Airport, which sits just west of Seoul. Each answer choice is a specific temperature in Celsius, and the market is essentially a group vote on which one the thermometer will hit at its lowest point that day. Late July in Seoul is deep summer, so the overnight low is the number to think about. The market settles on whichever temperature bucket matches the single lowest reading recorded at Incheon Airport on July 23, 2026, using Weather Underground's data for that station. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees Celsius, so a reading of 23.7°C would count as 23°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 24 appears on that page. Any corrections Weather Underground makes before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. That is normal this far from the date. The kind of information that would matter closer to July 23, 2026 includes seasonal forecasts for the Korean Peninsula, typhoon or monsoon activity in East Asia, and any unusual heat or cool spells in the region during that week. A full year separates us from this date, which makes precise forecasting genuinely impossible right now. The market currently prices 24°C as the most likely outcome at 44%, with 23°C close behind at 26%. Even in peak summer, Seoul's overnight lows can shift a few degrees depending on cloud cover, rain, and wind. Weather is inherently variable day to day, and no model reliably predicts a single night's low temperature a year in advance. The spread across options reflects that honest uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 24°C49%
• 23°C21%
• 22°C11%
• 25°C11%
• 26°C7%
• 21°C5%
• 27°C1%
• 20°C or below1%
• 29°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 30°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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