Lowest temperature in London on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will be the coldest temperature of the day at London City Airport on July 25, 2026? Think of it as predicting the overnight low, the coldest reading the thermometer hits at any point during that day. The three options are 16°C, 17°C, or 18°C, which in everyday terms is roughly the range between a cool summer evening and a mild one. The market currently leans toward 17°C as the most likely outcome, with 18°C close behind. The market settles based on the single lowest temperature reading recorded at London City Airport (station code EGLC) on July 25, 2026, as reported by the weather site Wunderground. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whoever runs the market will wait until the first data point for July 26 appears on that site before finalizing, giving time for any late corrections to July 25 data to come through. After that cutoff, no further revisions count. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. They cover unrelated topics from other parts of the world. For a market like this, the relevant thing to watch closer to July 25 would be medium-range weather forecasts for London, particularly ones issued a few days before the date. Weather forecasting more than a year out is genuinely impossible with precision. Even professional meteorologists can only predict specific temperatures reliably about a week in advance. The gap between the options is just two degrees Celsius, which is a very small margin. A slightly warmer or cooler night, a passing cloud, a shift in wind direction, all of these can nudge the reading from one bucket to another. This is an inherently tight and hard-to-call question until we get very close to the date.

The odds right now

• 17°C43%
• 18°C35%
• 16°C20%
• 19°C6%
• 15°C4%
• 20°C2%
• 14°C or below1%
• 21°C1%
• 23°C0%
• 22°C0%
• 24°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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