Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 24, 2026, what will be the coolest temperature of the day at Shanghai's Pudong Airport, measured in whole degrees Celsius? Late July is deep summer in Shanghai, so nights are warm and humid, and the overnight low is typically the coolest moment. A 'Yes' for 28°C means the thermometer never dipped below that point all day, while 27°C or 26°C would mean a slightly cooler night or early morning. After July 24, 2026 ends, the market settles based on the single lowest temperature reading logged that day at Shanghai Pudong Airport, pulled from the Weather Underground website. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so a reading of 27.6°C would count as 28°C. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point of July 25 appears before it officially closes, giving the data source time to finalize the day's record. Any late corrections to the data published before that cutoff count; corrections after it do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the news that would actually matter closer to the date includes Shanghai weather forecasts for late July 2026 and any reports of unusual heat or cooling patterns in the region as that date approaches. Weather a year out is genuinely hard to pin down. The three leading options, 26°C, 27°C, and 28°C, are clustered tightly together, which means a single degree separates the outcomes and small variations in cloud cover, humidity, or wind direction on that one night could shift the result. Historical July lows in Shanghai do cluster in this range, which is why the odds are spread across all three. Long-range forecasting has real limits, and no model today can reliably tell you the overnight low for a specific date 12 months from now.

The odds right now

• 28°C39%
• 27°C38%
• 29°C10%
• 26°C8%
• 25°C2%
• 24°C1%
• 30°C1%
• 23°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 22°C or below0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.