Lowest temperature in Miami on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how cool will Miami get overnight on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it wants to pin down the single coldest temperature recorded that day at Miami International Airport. July 23 is deep summer in Miami, so even the "low" temperature is warm by most standards. A Yes on the 82-83°F range means the night barely cools down at all. A Yes on 78-79°F means there was a bit more of a temperature drop than usual for that time of year. The market settles based on the lowest temperature reading logged at the Miami International Airport weather station (station code KMIA) on July 23, 2026, pulled from Weather Underground. Whatever the coldest single whole-number reading is that day, the market resolves to whichever temperature range contains it. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 24 appears before it officially settles, and any last-minute corrections to July 23 data made before that cutoff still count. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because this question is about a specific date more than a year away, the kind of update that would matter most is a seasonal weather outlook for South Florida in summer 2026, or any significant climate pattern forecast for that period. Nothing like that is available here. The main challenge is that a single night's low temperature in Miami is genuinely hard to pin down a year in advance. Miami in late July is consistently warm and humid, which is why the market clusters its odds between 80 and 83°F rather than spreading wide. Still, day-to-day variation exists: a passing storm, a shift in wind direction, or unusual cloud cover can push the low a few degrees in either direction. Weather this far out simply cannot be predicted with precision, even in a place with very consistent summers.

The odds right now

• 82-83°F36%
• 80-81°F33%
• 78-79°F15%
• 84-85°F8%
• 76-77°F3%
• 74-75°F1%
• 88-89°F1%
• 86-87°F1%
• 90°F or higher0%
• 71°F or below0%
• 72-73°F0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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