Lowest temperature in London on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on the night and morning of July 23, 2026, how cold will it get in London? Specifically, it is asking which temperature bucket captures the single lowest reading of the day, measured at London City Airport. A result of 18°C means London stays relatively mild, around the warmth of a comfortable indoor room. A result of 16°C means the night dips noticeably cooler, closer to needing a light jacket even in midsummer. The market settles on whichever temperature bracket contains the coldest reading recorded at London City Airport on July 23, 2026, according to Weather Underground's historical data for that station. The reading must be a whole-degree Celsius number. The market waits until the first data point from July 24 appears on that website before it officially closes, and only temperature revisions published before that cutoff count. No other weather station or source is used. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development that would matter here is a long-range weather forecast for London in late July 2026, or any seasonal outlook from the UK Met Office suggesting whether next summer is trending warmer or cooler than average. Those forecasts become more reliable as the date approaches. Late July in London is typically mild, which is why the market clusters around 17°C and 18°C, but overnight lows can shift meaningfully depending on cloud cover, wind direction, and whether a cooler Atlantic air mass moves in. July 23, 2026 is still well over a year away, making any forecast highly uncertain. Weather prediction beyond about two weeks is genuinely unreliable, so the range of plausible outcomes is wide, and even professional forecasters would not commit to a single degree this far out.

The odds right now

• 18°C45%
• 17°C38%
• 16°C14%
• 15°C6%
• 14°C1%
• 13°C1%
• 19°C1%
• 20°C0%
• 11°C or below0%
• 21°C or higher0%
• 12°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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