Lowest temperature in NYC on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the coldest moment of July 24, 2026 feel like in New York City? Specifically, it asks which two-degree range the overnight or early-morning low temperature will fall into at LaGuardia Airport. A 'Yes' on 66-67°F means the coldest reading of that day lands somewhere between 66 and 67 degrees Fahrenheit, which for late July would feel like a mild, comfortable night. The other ranges represent slightly warmer or cooler outcomes. The market settles based on the single lowest temperature reading recorded at LaGuardia Airport (station KLGA) on July 24, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. Whatever the coldest whole-number Fahrenheit reading is that day, whichever range contains it wins. The data is locked in once the first reading for July 25 is published, so any last-minute revisions to July 24 data before that cutoff count, but nothing after. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. The only headline in the feed is about a hospital in Malaysia and has no connection to New York weather. For this market, the thing to watch closer to July 24, 2026 would be extended weather forecasts for the New York metro area, particularly overnight low predictions. Weather this specific is genuinely hard to pin down more than a few days in advance, and July 24, 2026 is still roughly a year away. The market currently leans toward 66-67°F with 38%, but the 68-69°F range is close behind at 35%. Late July nights in NYC typically stay warm and humid, but a passing cold front or a clear, dry night could push the low cooler than expected. A two-degree window is a narrow target, so small shifts in conditions matter a lot.

The odds right now

• 66-67°F38%
• 68-69°F23%
• 64-65°F17%
• 70-71°F10%
• 62-63°F6%
• 60-61°F1%
• 72-73°F1%
• 74-75°F1%
• 58-59°F0%
• 76°F or higher0%
• 57°F or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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