Lowest temperature in Paris on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how cold will Paris get overnight into July 24, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single lowest temperature reading of that whole day at Paris-Le Bourget Airport. The options are basically 13°C, 14°C, or 15°C, which in Fahrenheit is roughly 55°F to 59°F. Think of it as: will that summer night in Paris be a bit chilly, or comfortably mild? The market currently leans toward 14°C as the most likely outcome, with 13°C and 15°C as real possibilities. The market settles based on the lowest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on July 24, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. Whatever the coldest reading is for that full day, rounded to a whole number in Celsius, determines the winner. It can only close after the first data point for July 25 appears on that site, confirming the day is complete. One thing to know: if the weather station revises its readings before that July 25 cutoff, the updated number counts. After that cutoff, no changes matter. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The only headline provided is about flood relief in a region of India, which has no connection to Paris weather. What would actually matter to watch for is any medium-range weather forecast for Paris in late July 2026, or reports of unusual heat waves or cold fronts approaching Western Europe around that time. Late July is normally warm in Paris, so the low temperature on any given night is genuinely hard to nail down precisely. The spread across 13°C, 14°C, and 15°C is narrow, just two degrees total, which means even a small shift in weather patterns changes the answer. Long-range weather forecasting beyond a few days is unreliable, and this market ends more than a year from now. The reading also comes from one specific airport station, so local conditions there matter more than general Paris forecasts.

The odds right now

• 14°C39%
• 13°C23%
• 15°C21%
• 16°C6%
• 12°C4%
• 11°C2%
• 17°C1%
• 18°C1%
• 10°C or below1%
• 20°C or higher1%
• 19°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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