Lowest temperature in Paris on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the coldest temperature of the day be in Paris on July 25, 2026? The coldest point of any given day usually happens just before sunrise, when the air has had all night to cool down. The market gives three main options: 15°C, 16°C, or 17°C, and you are essentially guessing which one matches the actual overnight low recorded at a specific airport weather station near Paris. The market settles based on the lowest temperature reading recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on July 25, 2026, as reported by the weather website Wunderground. The temperature is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so a reading of 16.7°C would count as 16°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 26 appears on the site. Any corrections published before that cutoff count, but corrections published after do not. None of the provided news appears to be related to this market. The only headline is about a hospital administration issue in Malaysia, which has no connection to Paris weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would matter closer to the date is a short-range weather forecast for Paris around July 24 to 25, which would give a clearer picture of overnight conditions. July 25, 2026 is more than a year away, which makes this genuinely hard to forecast with any precision. Long-range weather prediction is unreliable even for professional meteorologists. Paris in late July typically sees mild summer nights, which is why the options cluster between 15°C and 17°C, but actual temperatures can shift based on cloud cover, wind direction, and whether a cooler system passes through. The market currently leans toward 16°C, but the spread across all three options reflects real uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 16°C45%
• 17°C27%
• 15°C18%
• 14°C7%
• 18°C6%
• 19°C1%
• 13°C or below1%
• 20°C1%
• 21°C0%
• 22°C0%
• 23°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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