Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the coldest point of the day be in Seoul on July 22, 2026? In practice, that lowest temperature usually happens in the early hours before sunrise, when the night air is at its coolest. The three options are 21°C, 22°C, or 23°C, which in Fahrenheit terms are roughly 70°F, 72°F, and 73°F. These are all warm temperatures, because late July in Seoul is the height of summer and nights stay humid and hot. The market settles on whichever temperature matches the single coldest reading recorded at Incheon International Airport on July 22, 2026, using data from the weather site Wunderground. The temperature is rounded to a whole number, so 22.7°C would count as 22°C. The result is locked in once the first reading from July 23 appears on that site. Only one station is used, Incheon Airport, not downtown Seoul, so readings from other locations do not count. No recent news was provided for this market. That is normal for a weather question set more than a year out. What would matter closer to the date: seasonal forecasts for South Korea in mid-summer, any unusual heat waves or typhoon activity affecting the Korean Peninsula in late July 2026, and whether that specific night turns out humid and still versus slightly breezy. The main challenge is that this is over a year away, and no weather forecast is reliable at that range. The market currently splits almost evenly between 22°C and 23°C, with a small chance of 21°C, which reflects historical patterns for Seoul in late July rather than any real forecast. Night temperatures on any single day can shift by a degree or two based on cloud cover, wind, or rain, any of which is impossible to know this far out. One degree is genuinely the margin of uncertainty here.

The odds right now

• 23°C91%
• 22°C5%
• 21°C1%
• 20°C1%
• 19°C or below0%
• 24°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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