Lowest temperature in London on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the coldest moment of July 22, 2026 feel like in London? Specifically, it asks which single whole-number Celsius temperature will be the lowest reading of that day at London City Airport. A Yes on 17°C means the coldest point of that day, likely in the early hours before sunrise, touches 17 degrees and no lower. Each option is a specific temperature, not a range, so only one can win. After July 22 ends, the market checks the Weather Underground historical record for London City Airport (station code EGLC) and reads the lowest temperature logged for that full day, rounded to a whole degree Celsius. Whatever single number appears there as the day's minimum wins. Any last-minute corrections to the data are accepted until the first reading of July 23 is published, after which the record is locked in and the market settles. No relevant news was provided for this market. That is normal for a near-term weather question. The kind of update that would matter here is a forecast for London around July 22, particularly overnight low temperatures, from a source like the UK Met Office or a major weather service. Summer overnight lows in London are genuinely hard to pin down a year in advance. The market currently favors 17°C at 58%, but London's July nights can swing a few degrees depending on cloud cover, wind direction, and whether a cool Atlantic system moves in. The gap between 16°C, 17°C, and 18°C is small enough that a single weather system arriving a few hours earlier or later could shift the outcome entirely. Precise forecasts only become reliable within about a week of the date.

The odds right now

• 17°C51%
• 18°C23%
• 16°C21%
• 15°C8%
• 14°C2%
• 19°C1%
• 13°C0%
• 20°C0%
• 12°C or below0%
• 22°C or higher0%
• 21°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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