Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on the night and morning of July 22, 2026, what will the coldest temperature of the day be at Shanghai's Pudong Airport, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius? The three options are 26°C, 27°C, or 28°C. To give you a sense of scale, 27°C is about 81°F, so all three options represent a warm, humid summer night, which is typical for Shanghai in late July. The question is really just about how warm the overnight low turns out to be. The market settles based on the single lowest temperature reading recorded for July 22, 2026, at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The number is read in whole degrees Celsius, so no fractions are involved. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 23 appears on that site. Any corrections to the July 22 data are accepted up until that moment, but changes made after that cutoff are ignored. Whichever of the three listed temperature ranges contains that final number wins. None of the news provided is related to this market. There are no recent weather reports, forecasts, or climate data for Shanghai that were included here. The kind of information that would actually matter is a weather forecast for Shanghai around July 22, 2026, or historical data showing what overnight lows typically look like at Pudong Airport during late July. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market closes over a year from now, so no forecast can be reliable yet. The three options are all clustered within a narrow 3-degree range, which means even a small shift in humidity, cloud cover, or wind on that one night could change the outcome. The market currently leans toward 27°C at 47%, with 28°C close behind at 37%, but the spread is tight enough that all three outcomes remain plausible based on normal year-to-year variation.

The odds right now

• 27°C42%
• 26°C32%
• 25°C11%
• 28°C3%
• 24°C2%
• 29°C1%
• 23°C or below1%
• 30°C1%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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