Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on a single summer night in Hong Kong, how cool will it actually get? Specifically, it is asking what the lowest temperature will be during the full 24-hour period of July 22, 2026, as measured at the official Hong Kong Observatory station. A result of 28°C means the night stayed quite warm, while 26°C would mean it cooled off noticeably more than usual. For context, Hong Kong in late July is deep in its hot, humid summer, so even the overnight lows tend to stay high. The market settles on whichever temperature bracket contains the single coldest reading recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on July 22, 2026. The observatory publishes this as the "Absolute Daily Min" in its Daily Extract records, measured to one decimal place, so a reading like 27.4°C would fall in the 27°C bracket. The first published figure is final: any later corrections to the data will not change the outcome. The market cannot close until that data is officially published. None of the provided recent headlines relate to Hong Kong weather or anything that would affect temperature conditions on July 22, 2026. The kind of news that would actually matter here is a forecast from the Hong Kong Observatory closer to that date, or a weather pattern update showing whether a tropical system or a cooler air mass might be approaching the region around that time. Summer overnight lows in Hong Kong are genuinely hard to pin down a year in advance. Late July is typhoon season, and whether a storm or tropical moisture is nearby can push temperatures in either direction. The market spreads its weight across 28°C, 27°C, and 26°C, reflecting real uncertainty across a narrow range. Because the brackets are only 1 degree wide, even a small forecast error shifts the outcome. The answer hinges on a single number from a single night, which is inherently unpredictable this far out.

The odds right now

• 28°C36%
• 27°C30%
• 26°C16%
• 29°C11%
• 25°C5%
• 30°C1%
• 24°C0%
• 33°C or higher0%
• 23°C or below0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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