Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the coldest recorded temperature be in the Seoul area on July 24, 2026? The reading comes from the weather station at Incheon International Airport, which sits just west of Seoul. The options are specific whole-number temperatures in Celsius: 23°C, 24°C, or 25°C. In everyday terms, even the coolest option here (23°C) is roughly 73°F, so we are talking about a warm summer night, not a cold one. The question is just how warm the overnight low will be. After July 24, 2026 ends, the market checks the lowest temperature logged that day by the Incheon Airport weather station, as shown on Weather Underground. Whatever single whole-degree Celsius reading is the lowest recorded for that full day determines which option wins. One small detail worth knowing: the market waits until the first data point from July 25 appears before it settles, to make sure all July 24 readings are captured. Any late corrections to July 24 data are accepted until that July 25 reading posts, then frozen. There is no relevant recent news provided for this market. The one headline supplied is about flood relief in India, which has no connection to Seoul weather. To follow this market, the most useful thing to watch would be South Korean weather forecasts for late July 2026, particularly any predictions about heat waves, monsoon activity, or overnight humidity levels in the greater Seoul region. Late July in Seoul falls deep in the summer monsoon season, and overnight lows can shift noticeably depending on cloud cover, rainfall, and wind direction on any given night. The market is spread across three close options just 2°C apart, which means a small forecasting error lands you in the wrong bucket entirely. Weather prediction this specific, more than a year in advance, carries real uncertainty. The market currently leans toward 24°C at 40%, but the gap between the top two options is narrow, reflecting genuine disagreement.

The odds right now

• 24°C40%
• 25°C35%
• 23°C18%
• 26°C6%
• 22°C3%
• 27°C2%
• 21°C1%
• 20°C or below1%
• 28°C1%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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