Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how cool will Seoul get overnight on July 25, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single lowest temperature recorded that day at Incheon International Airport, which sits just outside Seoul and serves as the official measuring point. A result of 25°C means a warm, muggy night with barely any relief from the heat. A result of 23°C means the temperature dropped a bit more, offering slightly cooler air. The difference between these options is small in everyday terms, but meaningful for a hot summer night. The market settles on whichever temperature bucket matches the coldest reading logged at the Incheon Airport weather station on July 25, 2026, using data from Weather Underground. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 26 appears on that site. Any corrections to the July 25 data are accepted right up until that cutover moment, but not after. One thing to note: the station is at the airport, not in the city center, so readings may differ slightly from what people feel downtown. There is no recent news provided that is relevant to Seoul's weather on July 25, 2026. The headline included relates to a hospital administration issue in Malaysia and has no connection to this market. To track this question as the date approaches, the things worth watching would be Korean Meteorological Administration forecasts for late July 2026 and any seasonal outlooks for summer heat and humidity in the Seoul region. Late July in Seoul is reliably hot and humid, which is why the market clusters tightly around 23 to 25°C rather than spread widely. The real difficulty is that a single degree separates each option, and overnight lows can shift by that much depending on cloud cover, wind, or a passing rain shower. July 25, 2026 is still over a year away, so no forecast exists yet. Even close to the date, pinning down a single-degree overnight low accurately is genuinely hard. The market reflects that uncertainty by spreading probability across three close options.

The odds right now

• 25°C46%
• 24°C32%
• 23°C12%
• 26°C10%
• 22°C3%
• 21°C2%
• 27°C1%
• 28°C1%
• 20°C or below1%
• 29°C1%
• 30°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.