Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many measles cases the U.S. will officially record in 2026 before the end of August. There are three separate yes/no questions bundled here, each with a different number as the threshold: 2,400 cases, 2,450 cases, and 2,500 cases. A "Yes" on any of them means the CDC's official running total reached that number or higher by August 31. A "No" means the count stayed below that threshold. To picture the scale: the entire U.S. averaged fewer than 100 measles cases per year for most of the 2010s, so these thresholds represent a very large outbreak by recent standards. Each version of the market settles based on one specific number: the CDC's official "Total Cases" counter for measles in 2026, checked at 11:59 PM Eastern Time on August 31, 2026. If that counter shows the threshold number or higher, it resolves Yes. If it shows less, it resolves No. One important edge case: only the CDC's own counter counts. State health department reports or news articles do not qualify, even if they show higher numbers. If the CDC page goes offline, the organizers say they will find another credible source. None of the provided news headlines are related to measles, U.S. public health, or the CDC. There is no relevant recent news to summarize here. The kind of development worth watching would be CDC updates to the 2026 case count, reports of new outbreak clusters in unvaccinated communities, or any changes to how the CDC reports its data. The market already prices all three thresholds above 93%, meaning participants collectively believe the count is very likely already near or past these numbers. The main remaining uncertainty is not really "will there be a large outbreak" but rather whether the CDC's official counter will formally register these totals by the August 31 deadline. Reporting lags, where confirmed cases exist but have not yet been entered into the CDC counter, could matter at the margins. The gap between 93% and 100% reflects that small residual risk.

The odds right now

• 2400+100%
• 2450+94%
• 2500+93%
• 2550+59%
• 2600+23%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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