Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This is actually three separate markets bundled together, each asking whether U.S. measles cases in 2026 will cross a different threshold: 3,000 cases, 3,500 cases, or 4,000 cases. A Yes on any one of them means the CDC's official count reaches that number or higher before the year ends. A No means the count stays below it. The thresholds are stacked, so if 4,000 cases happen, all three resolve Yes; if only 3,200 happen, only the 3,000 threshold resolves Yes. The CDC runs an official measles case counter on its website, and that counter's total for 2026 is the only number that matters here. If it shows 3,000 or more confirmed cases by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, the 3,000 market resolves Yes, and so on for each threshold. State health department numbers do not count, even if they differ from the CDC's. If the CDC counter goes offline, organizers will use another credible source. No specific recent news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching would be CDC updates on active outbreak clusters, changes in vaccination rates in specific communities, and any school or religious-community outbreaks, since measles spreads fastest in groups with lower vaccination coverage. The biggest challenge is that measles outbreaks can accelerate very quickly once they start in under-vaccinated communities, making the final case count hard to predict even mid-year. The market prices crossing 3,000 cases at 91%, suggesting strong momentum, but whether 4,000 is reached is much more open at 35%. Uncertainty comes from how outbreaks are contained, seasonal spread patterns, and whether vaccination campaigns respond effectively. The year is also long, leaving many months for the situation to shift in either direction.

The odds right now

• ↑3k+3.5 pts (1w)91%
• ↑3.5k+4.0 pts (1w)66%
• ↑4k35%
• ↑5k-2.5 pts (1w)14%
• ↑7.5k12%
• ↑10k-0.7 pts (1w)6%
• ↑12.5k+0.5 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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